Vahrokh Vain http://www.vahrokh.com Games, trading, programming, software, finance. EvE Online trading and economy Wed, 21 Mar 2018 10:59:21 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.9.8 Still on the move! http://www.vahrokh.com/2015/10/still-on-the-move/ http://www.vahrokh.com/2015/10/still-on-the-move/#comments Thu, 01 Oct 2015 12:27:09 +0000 http://www.vahrokh.com/?p=4304 Vahrokh.com is still on the move! I am diligently working to finish setting it up on a brand new VPS, so please bear with me, I working as fast as I can!

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Vahrokh.com is still on the move

As I have mentioned on the EvE Online forums, moving vahrokh.com is proving to be a quite monumental task.

At the moment I have done the most daunting work, that is converting the website from Apache to Nginx, removing CDN stuff, actually setting it up elsewhere and so on.

Other things still need to be done, I’ll do as quick as I can.

Once I am finished with this work, I am going to resume updating the tools you love, like EvEMarketHistoryDump and posting charts and financial analysis.

 

All the best,

Vaerah

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Most beautiful and handsome EvE character http://www.vahrokh.com/2015/07/most-beautiful-and-handsome-eve-character/ Wed, 29 Jul 2015 17:13:12 +0000 http://www.vahrokh.com/?p=5049 Some light and happy post for once! I have learned I make it into the New Eden Faces Leaderboard Top 12 Most beautiful and handsome EvE character.

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Most beautiful and handsome EvE character

Uh, what?

Yes, you heard it right: “Most beautiful and handsome EvE character”.

Today I want to go a bit “off the beaten road”. Usually I am going on long economy, trading and markets lessons, charts, financial software and so on. However I have learned that I have been chosen as one of the “top attractive female EvE characters” on the New Eden Faces Website. Considering I am sort of expected to be a kind of serious-if-not-pouting finance chap, this comes as a quite unexpected news.

Considering I did not even try making a sexy / neat / awesome  character nor pose and did not bother using some heavy Aurum paid dress this comes as a welcome surprise! I can’t say I don’t like it, every woman loves to be appreciated!  Figuring on the top 12 hall of fame is unexpected indeed!

Here is the EvE Online forum post where I learned and and posted a screenshot about my hall of fame placement for the most beautiful and handsome EvE character.

Here is the New Eden Faces page showing me and the other top 12 characters:

Most beautiful and handsome EvE character

I appear in the the fourth picture in the Leaderboard Top 12 Characters.

Here, just for few, prying eyes, a more intimate picture of myself. Enjoy!

Vaerah-top

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Website is moving to a new host http://www.vahrokh.com/2015/07/website-moving-new-host/ http://www.vahrokh.com/2015/07/website-moving-new-host/#comments Tue, 28 Jul 2015 06:43:14 +0000 http://www.vahrokh.com/?p=4217 Website is going to move to a new host. Vahrokh.com is going to be installed on its own VPS!

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Website is moving to a new host

In the next days and perhaps weeks, vahrokh.com will be moved to a new host.

Massive website upgrade
Massive website upgrade

The blog and all the other vahrokh.com facilities will be gradually moved to a VPS. This should make the website more quicker while preserving the graphic enhancements it had received some months ago. The VPS comes with varnish and memcached, this should really bring in some serious horse power!

I hope the migration will be smooth. As usual, if you spot issues and bugs with this process I’ll gladly listen to your feedback.

 

Yours truly,

Vaerah aka Vahrokh

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Online games and economy http://www.vahrokh.com/2015/02/online-games-and-economy/ Sun, 08 Feb 2015 13:32:37 +0000 http://www.vahrokh.com/?p=4127 Introduction I have read times and again questions about online games and economy: if they are related, how much, if it’s important for an online game / MMO / MMORPG to have an healthy economy and so on. As long time MMO player and in game and real life trader,  I have acquired quite a […]

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Introduction

I have read times and again questions about online games and economy: if they are related, how much, if it’s important for an online game / MMO / MMORPG to have an healthy economy and so on.

As long time MMO player and in game and real life trader,  I have acquired quite a good amount of material and experience about this topic.Online games and economy

Readers who stumble upon this blog from a Google search might want to check the many markets, finance (both game and real life related) articles present on this blog. They’ll find out how at a certain point I have given inspiration to EvE Online™ economist Dr. Eyjolfur Guðmundsson for a presentation he gave at his last Fanfest. This has been an huge honor for me, as EvE® Online™ is known for its rock solid economy model and Dr. Eyjolfur Guðmundsson has been a very competent game economist, known to the point to later get hired with a prestigious position of rector at Háskólinn á Akureyri (University of Akureyri).

Other references: my work has been used to improve tools like the Guild Wars™ 2 premier gold / gems charting tool, EvE Online’s EvE Marketeer website (more charts), to have created an EvE economy blog and to have setup realistic EvE market charts that look exactly like real life ones.

Economy is vital to a MMORPG

It’s not immediately apparent, but a MMO economy is what makes or breaks it.
Games with a stale or over-inflating economy are doomed to fail. It’s that simple. Even in games where economy seems to be completely irrelevant, it’s still a fundamental factor. A single player game, even a non RPG based game, can easily break if its numbers are off. In a MMO markets and economy are even more important, because they implement a community and communication tool between players <=> players and between players <=> developers.

Two main kinds of MMORPG market places: “global auction house” vs “local markets”

Games economies and markets come in all sorts of kinds, but they may roughly be classified into two main categories: games with a central market place and games with regional, local markets / market places.

Games usually use simplified economy models, therefore the strategy used to place market places also influences markets, which in turn inflences the economy. Therefore from now on I’ll use the terms without making too many distinctions.

Global auction house model

The first names that come to mind are World Of Warcraft® and SWTOR®. You get one or very few, centralized “central exchanges” where everything is listed at once and together. This is a quite popular kind of model, because players may find everything they want in a single, convenient location. However it comes with drawbacks and issues that have broken some MMORPGs in the past.

Positives

  • Single, convenient location where to buy and sell items.
  • Very good for games where dropped gear is the best gear / where bind on pickup gear is the norm.
  • Markets quickly achieve economy of scale and spreads reduction.
  • Looks fairly “realistic”: markets in the real world these days are inter-connected and easily accessed.

Negatives

  • Game becomes shallow for certain categories of players.
  • There’s no wallets segregation. Later in the article I’ll explain these specialistic terms.
  • There’s too much money velocity.
  • Gold farmers, exploiters can easily break the economy and destroy the game.
  • Looks  realistic but it’s not. It’s actually too “magic”. In real world markets you cannot “teleport” items across the world from seller to buyer.
  • Hostile to crafters: since “life” in a MMORPG has no costs and prices spread shrinks trending to zero over time, their work and investments (be it recipes costs, special quest lines to do in order to unlock certain crafting skills…) are not rewarded at all. Their wares become unprofitable to craft, their price becomes equivalent to the bare value of the item components and materials. The usual outcome is: nobody cares to craft anything any longer, everyone just sells raw materials, which usually achieve a premium because they give experience to those who buy and work them into refined materials.

Local markets

The first names that come to mind are EvE Online™ and The Elder Scrolls Online™.

Both of these games rely on a very important factors: travel times and high wallets segregation. These greatly help avoiding the economy to become “too hot”, over-inflate and help fighting gold farmers and exploiters on a macro scale.

In these MMORPGs, players don’t have a central exchange or trade hub or auction house. They have several local markets and players must bring their wares to these. Moreover, prices are not visible from everywhere nor across marketplaces: they are local and known only to the local market being browsed.

Positives

  • It’s possible to have items relevant to a certain region being conveniently listed right there.
  • Very good for sandbox games, for games with strong crafting, where dropped gear is not expecially prevalent or good and where a good portion of the drops is freely traded or bind on equip.
  • Markets maintain profitability for the individual participants.
  • They are realistic, because we are talking about items markets, not about “virtual” securities markets.
  • Good wallets segregation.
  • Low money velocity.

Negatives

  • It’s time consuming to find and offer items: you need to travel all around.
  • Players with an “arcade” or “action game”  mentality dislike having to go find the best deals and generally employ their time into an activity they feel it’s boring.
  • Bid / ask spreads are larger than central marketplace MMORPGs. Whereas this is a nice bonus for crafters, who may charge a premium for their work.

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Technical Analysis applied to EvE Online markets http://www.vahrokh.com/2015/01/2015-01-26-technical-analysis-eve-online-markets/ Mon, 26 Jan 2015 23:46:39 +0000 http://www.vahrokh.com/?p=3926 Technical Analysis applied to EvE Online markets: most EvE Online analyses presented on this website are based on Price Action. This time we explore the classic Technical Analysis approach.

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Technical Analysis applied to EvE Online markets

Introduction

This website has produced a lot of EvE Online markets analyses. Actually, so many of them that without any particular SEO arrangements, this website Google ranks first worldwide for terms like: “eve online nitrogen isotopes market analysis”.
However, in all this time I have never covered one specific kind of markets analysis: the classic Technical Analysis applied to EvE Online markets.

I have to admit, I have tried this kind of approach some years ago in real life trading and it did not fit me well. But I am not going to impose my style and preference on anybody else. I am fairly sure nobody (cares to) recall my original “Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE” forum thread. That thread had a lot of experimenting inside it (hence the name!), including analyzing the markets with indicators such as MACD, RSI, Bollinger Bands and so on. I went so far to attempt setting up a dedicated service about charts and indicators, see this “Experiment #03 On demand game market data and graphs” thread.

Some years later, technology has advanced and now it’s not necessary to painfully import CSV data into Excel sheets and graphs any longer. It’s become easier and classic technical analysis with indicators may be done with the same real life trading charting software I use for my price action analyses.

Getting started

Obtain EvE Online market data

Most of the process to get you started is the same I have described for the Price Action based analyses.

What’s important is that you end up with valid OHLC data. I stress on “valid” because charting applications tend to behave very bad when fed inconsistent data, like in example data containing rows where the high is less than the low.

The easiest way to get such data, at the moment, is to use my EvEMarketHistoryDump application and export the EvE Online client cached market data.

In a while, new REST / CREST based applications making use of the EvE markets REST data export API, will allow to fetch data with no “home made” cache scraping software.

Regardless of how you obtained the data, make sure it’s in OHLC format. Here is a sample of some rows in the appropriate format:

Date is in YYYY-MM-DD format, Open, High, Low, Close, Volume. Commas and decimal separators must be as in the example.

2015-01-01,822.01,838.00,821.00,837.84,70366759
2015-01-02,837.84,839.33,829.12,838.00,55091194
2015-01-03,838.00,839.34,818.00,838.22,75663537
2015-01-04,838.22,866.95,830.00,847.74,58610231
2015-01-05,847.74,863.88,836.25,836.55,94853715
2015-01-06,836.55,861.83,823.05,832.40,95192856
2015-01-07,832.40,835.93,811.05,812.00,49239579
2015-01-08,812.00,825.00,810.01,820.00,63271212
2015-01-09,820.00,827.64,801.43,809.88,98574290
2015-01-10,809.88,824.88,809.88,819.95,74354274

Getting the data by using Vahrokh.com own facilities and software

I have described how to scrape the EvE Online client cached market data in previous articles. Most of what follows need to be done only once. Here’s a brief list:

  • Read this tutorial about how to setup your EvE Online in game browser and market window and how to use the special web page that lets you automatically browser through many EvE Online items so they get stored in your client cache. Skip the beginning part, talking about EvEMarketeer Uploader and go directly to the “Usage” numbered list.
  • Download, install and use my free EvEMarketHistoryDump software. The link points to download location and step by step tutorial.

At this point you’ll have a series of CSV files available. Among them you’ll see files with names similar to:

Nitrogen Isotopes-OHLC_XLS-The Forge.csv
Nitrogen Isotopes-OHLC-Yahoo_EODThe Forge.csv
Nitrogen Isotopes-OHLC-YMDThe Forge.csv
Nitrogen Isotopes-The Forge.csv

You have to select one of these files per item. The correct file is the one with: “YMD” in the name, in this example: “Nitrogen Isotopes-OHLC-YMDThe Forge.csv”.

Next, download the free version of MultiCharts® Discretionary Trader™, a professional trading platform and charting solution. To do this, please follow the instructions detailed here.

Finally, install the software as shown in great detail in this tutorial.

If you have followed all the instructions steps and you loaded in example Nitrogen Isotopes, you shall see something like this:

Nitrogen Isotopes example
Nitrogen Isotopes example

Congratulations! Now you have a functional setup like the one I use.

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[NIISO] Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis http://www.vahrokh.com/2015/01/2015-01-15-niiso-nitrogen-isotopes-market-analysis/ Mon, 26 Jan 2015 02:58:42 +0000 http://www.vahrokh.com/?p=3913 This is a Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis. Nitrogen Isotopes is an important and liquid EvE Online market. Vaerah's analyses are performed with professional financial tools, also used by former Chief Economist Dr. Ejyo Gudmundsson.

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Nitrogen Isotopes market analysisEvE Online

Introduction

It’s been more than a year since I have posted a Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis.  One may take this as a problem or as an opportunity. I love taking opportunities. I recall having had some discussion with people not believing on trend lines. Well, I am going to show this Nitrogen Isotopes monthly chart, coming from this 2013 Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis.

To the “unbelievers” among you: of course one year ago I knew I’d be right about the trend lines and I’d prove it. Therefore I posted the analysis on the EvE Online forums as well, forums that in turn are saved on EvESearch.com for posterity.


Here’s the ancient chart:

2013 Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis
2013 Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis

Notice those two converging trend lines starting in 2012-2013? Somebody who’d have read my analysis and would have bought stock could have held it for months. Doing nothing but making passive money.

Here’s today’s chart for Nitrogen Isotopes:

Nitrogen Isotopes monthly chart
Nitrogen Isotopes monthly chart

Imagine this: buying at 800 and selling at 1200 or higher in August. But “higher” involves knowing the bar showing up 2 on June was a pin bar. Not just “a” pin bar, but a pin bar playing first top to the second top and playing as controlling bar… Too much complex stuff, just dump at 1200 and be happy with that and leave these complexities for real life trading 😀 .

Now, on to the current analysis.

Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

The market has peaked. Twice. At first on June 2014, then a second top appeared with the September 2014, 2 months pin bar. The resulting double top got to its target on November 2014. Since then, price is pressuring down. BRN 800 is proving quite of a formidable support, it’s now 4 months price can’t break it.

Nitrogen Isotopes monthly chart
Nitrogen Isotopes monthly chart

But what happens past this funny stuff? Another triangle! This time it’s small so it’s effects won’t be huge. However if it breaks down (75% of triangles are a trend continuity pattern), if we project its target (see old analyses to learn how) we see price could go as low as BRN 600 before meeting a strong obstacle. If it breaks upward, it’ll find a resistance at BRN 1000 already. I am not saying it could not go higher, but a resistance will be there. Of course this will sound like ambiguous language to say the least… however if I don’t have a certain, unique way situation at hand, I can’t know what price will decide to do next. Had it been a pin bar sitting on a support, it’d be different as it’s a known price action pattern and price is known to tend to try going back to the tip of the bar before the pin bar.

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Website update: new EvE Online resources http://www.vahrokh.com/2015/01/website-update-new-eve-online-resource/ Sun, 25 Jan 2015 15:43:36 +0000 http://www.vahrokh.com/?p=3906 Website update: new EvE Online resources. Vahrokh.com is now reviewing and adding the new generations of applications and websites featuring the markets data export.

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Website update: new EvE Online resources

EvE Online is a game in constant evolution. As such, I am adding some new resources and websites.

UpdatedParticularly worth noting, are the new generation of EvE Online markets related applications and websites.

In fact, CCP are adding support for yet another revolution in the industry: the ability to query the market data from outside of the game client. Here is a reference to the CCP official developers blog announcing this new, exciting feature.

I am going to follow the new developments in this field. If you find some expecially useful application or website featuring the new REST technology to query the markets, please let me know. I’ll review your submission and eventually add  the found material to the list of EvE Online resources.

 

Yours truly,

Vaerah aka Vahrokh

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EvE Online is superior and different http://www.vahrokh.com/2014/12/eve-online-superior-different/ Fri, 05 Dec 2014 14:15:15 +0000 http://www.vahrokh.com/?p=3348 EvE Online is superior and different, leagues above to any possible other online experience, despite some obvious shortcomings, despite its age, despite its flaws.

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EvE Online is superior and different
Thera Sisters of EvE station
Thera Sisters of EvE station

It’s now almost 7 years since I have started playing EvE Online. Since the first days playing it, I understood EvE Online is superior and different to the other games.

EvE Online is one of the handful of “evergreen MMOs” that survived whole technology eras. It’s also one of the even fewer ones that did not massively decline in subsciption counts, and this despite having had difficult times and even some scandals which would have burned many a prominent MMOs.

Many times I have asked myself: “there’s something missing in the picture”.
Let’s be frank. EvE Online is not exactly a game catering to the millions.

EvE Online is not exactly “super cool looking”. Well, it is, but not in the mainstream “shiny candy” definition of cool.
EvE Online has spaceships… but it’s hardly alone. It features “harsh consequences for dying” but other MMOs do that too.
EvE Online has full drop on death… but that too is not unique. There are other competing MMOs that feature harsher consequences for losing your spaceship: in one of them it’s possible you had purchased it with real money…
EvE Online has an awesome economy and functional markets. But even that, has been implemented by other games. Same for industry and research.

So, what makes EvE Online… EVE Online? What makes EvE Online superior and different?

I  think there are two reasons: a more obvious and known one, and a less obvious one.

  • EvE Online puts all of the above features together in a credible and solid whole. It’s not just spaceships or industry or REST API… it’s all of them in one.
  • EvE Online is a, if not the, precursor to social networking media.

 

Not just spaceships, but an all in one, believable experience

This is easy to explain. Every player who becomes a long term “citizen”, understands that EvE Online is superior and different to the other games because it puts so many different “subsystems” together and does it in a convincing way. There are indeed MMOs which may claim “crafing schools” superiority over EVE Online. There are others fully employing the latest DirectX /OpenGL technologies to look awesome. There are others with segmented regional markets. But they sport those features as their one distinguishing trait… the rest of the game is usually nothing to speak about.

EvE Online new Industry User Interface
EvE Online new Industry User Interface

On the contrary, EvE Online has all of this and more. It comes with its weak or even very weak spots (Tyrannis with its Planetary Interaction was not exactly the best of the best) but on the whole it manages to blend an ever increasing, huge amount of separate features into a whole. So, you may go to a believable market or accept a believable item contract and get your stuff. With that stuff you may believably create a lot of items (different degrees of quality, invention, involved logistics, production facilities using conummables..) including a whole, fitted spaceship. Or station. Or whatever. And then you may believably get out with it and go believably lose it (or not!) against believable, human driven opponents, members of believable organizations.

 I have actually skipped a lot of steps, as in EvE Online you may prefer to really produce “everything from the ground up”, basically from the most basic, unrefined primal minerals to supercomputer components. You might want to get them from planets, from abandoned installations, from deep space pockets, from distant “null security” lawless space, smuggled through civilized space or even go inside dangerous and unknwn worm holes and try your luck!

In the next page I cover the other reason why EvE Online is superior and different.

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Massive website upgrade for Vahrokh.com http://www.vahrokh.com/2014/08/massive-website-upgrade/ Sun, 10 Aug 2014 16:03:48 +0000 http://www.vahrokh.com/?p=3134 Massive website upgrade: in the next days and perhaps weeks, vahrokh.com will face some very deep modifications, to make it look modern and mobile friendly...

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Massive website upgrade

In the next days and perhaps weeks, vahrokh.com will face some very deep modifications.

Massive website upgrade
Massive website upgrade

This is to try and make it more modern, more “mobile friendly”, possibly make it responsive and so on.

This effort will probably lead to a lot of bugs and inconsistencies with the current content, I apologize for any discomfort this could cause and I kindly ask you to point me out where the website broke.

 

Yours truly,

Vaerah aka Vahrokh

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EvE Online – Fanfest 2014 http://www.vahrokh.com/2014/04/eve-online-fanfest-2014/ http://www.vahrokh.com/2014/04/eve-online-fanfest-2014/#comments Tue, 29 Apr 2014 22:15:16 +0000 http://www.vahrokh.com/?p=2889 EvE Online - Fanfest 2014: beyond spaceships. An event coming right before one of the most important EvE patches ever.

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EvE Online – Fanfest 2014: beyond spaceships

 

Eve Online Fanfest 2014

A Fanfest that comes close to the summer expansion

For those who don’t know EvE Online, Fanfest is a yearly social event sponsored by CCP (the game developer). Fanfest is a big spotlight on the game, on its trends and on the summer expansion. In EvE fact receives two free expansions a year: one in the summer and one before Christmas.

Every year players and fans come to CCP’s headquarters, located on Iceland and spend a week of fun, immersion, mad feasting all centered around their favored spaceships game. Fanfest panels and sessions are streamed over internet in low and high resolution as well.

This year Fanfest comes pretty close to the summer expansion and will cover a lot about it.

 Eve Online Valkyrie

Not just spaceships

This year Fanfest is going to cover several juicy topics. Among them I can’t wait and see what they are doing about Valkyrie, that is a dogfight space combat game set in the EvE Online universe. It’s pretty much known I have always missed a “twitchy” dogfight module for EvE combat. I come from ancient awesome games like X-Wing and Tie Fighter (and several others) and really love frantically mashing buttons and swinging joysticks like a madman!

However there’s another big, no, huge change coming to EvE: the industry overhaul. Now, on surface this might look like something quite minor. Some more PvP or PvE oriented players actually complained about how inconspicuous the summer expansion is going to be.

They couldn’t be more wrong!

 

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