Vahrokh Vain

  • Home ▼
    • Announcements
    • About
  • Games ▼
    • EvE Online – The best space simulation MMORPG
      • EvE Online resources
        • EvE Online tutorials, links, software and resources
        • EvE software reviews
        • EvE downloads
      • Vaerah Vahrokha’s services
        • Services listing
          • Auditing
          • 3rd Party Service, Collateral Holding, Insurance
        • Public Audits Records (PAR)
        • Vahrokh’s Emergencies Relief Trust
        • VAERT thread on the EvE Online forums
        • VEMEX
          • EvE markets auto-cache downloader
        • Companies
      • EvE and real life finance
        • Price Action Trading Course
        • EvEMarketHistoryDump, an EvE markets OHLC data exporter
        • Importing EvE market data in a RL trading platform
        • EvE Online sample trades
        • Best finance books reviews
    • Istaria
    • World Of Warcraft
  • Downloads
  • Technology ▼
    • Computer
      • Tutorials
        • WordPress
          • W3 Total Cache
    • Software
  • Economy and finance ▼
    • CFTC, Forex and general trading disclaimers
    • Price Action Trading Course
    • Market analysis index
    • Best finance books
Vahrokh Vain > EvE Online – The best space simulation MMORPG > Audits > 2012-03-06 [GFATCOPBO019] Jake Andarius

2012-03-06 [GFATCOPBO019] Jake Andarius

Vahrokh company logoVahrokh logoConsulting

 

Audit report for Jake Andarius business proposal

This is Vaerah Vahrokha’s analysis as of 2012-03-06 08:00 EvE Time.
NEISIN code: GFATCOPBO019.
Official discussion: link to investment prospectus.
Public Audits Record (PAR) for this investment: backlink.

 

Tools used

jEveAssets
EvE Income Analyzer Crucible Edition
EvE Mentat
Microsoft® Excel™
Blender 3D => LuxRender
Paint.NET => Bolt Bait Pack, DPY Plugins, MadJik Pack, Vandermotten Effects

 

Forewords about the Audit

Jake Andarius is an high sec trader and mission runner.
In order to expand on his current activity he is starting an uncollateralized, public bond.
This audit will cover the trading activities past performance.

 

Generalities

Main character for this proposal is Jake Andarius, playing one account along with another associated player, a real life friend of him. He only plays one character (the Auditor made sure to check the other two were not just hidden by an EvE API setting). He trained several level IV and V skills for trading, contracting, hauling with industrials, L4 missioning.
Jake Andarius, is a February 2010 character with 9.2M SP.

Both his and his friend’s and his friend’s alt forum posting history are very short. They don’t show evident ill-behaviors. There has not been found evidence of Jake Andarius first investment’s thread posters being his alts. Killboard is minimal, only pertinent kill mail shows an early days loss of a 15M cargo industrial to an high sec suicide gank.

Statement of ability to deliver: the Investee has regular past and present market orders running.
Statement of past activity: the journal API records report a regular trading activity as far as the API allows to check for.

 

Player uniqueness test

It has been brought under the Investors attention how the Investee and his real life friend could actually be the same player trying to plead and push the bond.

The Auditor decided to perform a player uniqueness test. It is a quite effective check, even if does not claim to be a scientific trial in any way. There are ways to circumvent it, expecially if the test was used before or the test subject had time to prepare specific macros. Neither of these conditions were fulfilled in this case.

Jake Andarius and his friend were invited on two chats and given different instructions to do the following:

1) Press a button key to the upper left (USA keyboards) + ENTER
2) Press SHIFT + a button to the right + ENTER
3) Go to 1 till told to stop.

One player has been told to press “1 + ENTER + ] + ENTER” till told to stop, the other has been told to press  “z + ENTER + ampersand + ENTER” till told to stop.
Later, they were instructed to repeat the same operation on the same chat.
Additionally, they were checked about having different, concurrent, un-synchronized typing speeds (harder to fake).
Finally, a quick syntax style review verified that they had a different use of capital letters, different placement of them (i.e. one players types them on the next chat line, the other does not capitalize) and different lexicon.

The results of these checks were all positive. The test execution is available for everyone to see in these videos:

 

Video 1

 

Video 2

 

Video 3

 

Involvement in other business

As of March 5, Jake Andarius has liabilities for 2,351,172,724.46 ISK due to private investors (friends).

 

Business Plan Analysis

The Investee disclosed his trading strategy both to the Auditor and to the public. It involves leveraging on small, high value orders to take value out of the buy / sell spreads.

The business plan is about raising funds to be able to increase this effect.
The Investee is already in the proposed market niche, he does not need logistics.
The Investee may resort to L4 mission running, in case the investment does not produce the expected performance.

Feasibility statement: the business plan looks viable, look at the market performance analysis for further details.

 

Collateral and exit strategy

The Investee won’t post collateral for this bond.
No exit strategy has been planned.

 

Net Asset Value and other balance considerations

The estimated net worth of all liabilities, solid & liquid assets is about 5.271B ISK.
Market transactions are made by the Investee character.
Assets across all of the characters and corporations are estimated to be worth 0.494B.

Important notice: the reported values may be lower than the real amounts, because certain assets in certain conditions are not reported by the API.

 

Assets and balance

1">audit-record" border="0">
1">audit-record" style="text-align: left;" colspan="3">Balance
Wallet balance:5.484B
Market sell-orders: 1.644B
Market escrow:0.000B
Contracts:0.000B
Investments / receivable:0.000B
Liabilities / payable:(2.351)B
Total:4.777B

 

 

1">audit-record" border="0">
1">audit-record" style="text-align: left;" colspan="3">Assets
POS:0.000B
Fleet / ships (unfitted):0.403B
Modules:0.084B
Misc. solid assets; minerals, salvage, ice and trade goods etc.:0.000B
Blueprint copies and originals:0.000B

 

Other

Accessories (includes PLEXes):0.000B
Charges:0.004B
Commodities:0.000B
Drones:0.003B
Ordered assets under construction:0.000B
Planetary items or resources:0.000B
Ship components:0.000B
General or classified items:0.000B
Total:0.494B

Estimated grand total: 5.271 Billion ISK

The above evaluations were made by using The Forge prices as reference.

 

Markets performance analysis

Due to the changes in the EvE® API, none of the analysis softwares used in the past seem to work any longer. In order to improve this audit’s presentation, the Auditor ported and bug fixed one of them to the new standard. Thus EvE Income Analyzer Crucible Edition has born.

 

Income and expenditure

The following graph shows the income and expenditure in the last two weeks. Expenditure includes unrealized profit and losses.

Wallet income and expenditure

Last two weeks income: 7.642B.
Last two weeks expenses: 5.911B
Total balance: 1.731B

 

Wallet balance

The following chart shows the variations in wallet liquidity.

 Balance graph

 

Best selling items

The following graph shows which items were the best selling for the full API covered period. The Investee asked to have the item names blanked.

Best selling items

 

Trading efficiency

The following graph shows how much margin the Investee made by selling his stock. The “Efficiency” column shows the margin. In example, 0.22 means a 22% margin was achieved. The Investee asked to have the item names blanked.

Trade efficiency

The best item sales netted 22% profit.
There are items sold at a loss but they were mostly bought to run some missions, then dumped to buy orders.
The average sales netted a 7% profit.

 

Selling speed

The following graph shows how quickly the stock moved. The Investee asked to have the item names blanked.

Selling speed

 

Items and markets

The following graph shows which markets had the highest turnover for which item. The Investee asked to have the item and station names blanked.

 Items and markets

 

Time distribution

The following chart shows the time distribution (per hour and per day) of the sales.

Time distribution

 

Positives

The Investee has the character skills to confirm his claims.
The Investee net worth is vastly more than the requested capital, the Investee is comfortable dealing with the involved amounts.
The Investee accepted an audit, replied to questions, accepted to subject himself and his friend to the “player uniqueness” check.
Small bond amount and sufficient interest rate.

 

Negatives

No collateral nor exit strategy have been provided.
Little posting history makes it hard to understand the personality of the Investee.
This bond could be seen as an attempt to “rep grind”. The former bond failed to take off, this one could be a “try again with a smaller amount”.
Trading is inherently a risky profession, investing hard on few items makes it riskier. There are past examples of this kind of trading working very well though.

 

Conclusions

Due to the lack of collateral and exit strategy and due to the risky kind of profession and the particular trading strategy involved, the Auditor classifies this investment as very high risk.

Please notice how “very high risk” does not mean “unsafe”. It’s two different concepts. Talking about high risk of bad performance (the Investee could just run missions to fix that), risk of real life complications etc. is one thing, the ever present chance of scam is another. The latter cannot be prevented by an audit, which only acts as first line deterrent.

The Investee seems competent (skills wise and player wise) enough to deliver on his statements and has past positive records. His business is in a growth phase, his API records show he may operated as he stated.

Basically, the Investee looks like having the ability to successfully honor the bond. Notice how an audit may only evaluate the ability or potential of an Investee to succesfully honor a bond / IPO.
The Auditor suggests perspective Investors NOT to invest their full capital on this venture but to offer what they could eventually afford to lose.

 

Disclaimers

Due to stringent EvE API limitations, although the information provided to you on this document is obtained or compiled from sources believed to be reliable, Vahrokh Consulting cannot and does not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness, or completeness of any information or data made available to you for any particular purpose.
This Auditor is actively and passionately against any breach of privacy, in particular regarding in game mail API access. Therefore no information will ever be gathered and no audit will ever be released that will contain any element found by eavesdropping someone else’s private communications.
Neither the information nor any opinion contained in this document constitutes a solicitation or offer by Vahrokh Consulting or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, assets or services.

Follow Vahrokh on:

RSS
Facebook
Twitter
YouTube
Follow by Email

Search

Login

  • Lost Password

Topics

  • Announcements (13)
  • Audit (11)
  • Communications (2)
  • Economy and finance (9)
  • EvE audit (11)
  • EvE Online (48)
  • EvE Online (18)
  • EvE public investment record (12)
  • EvE Vahrokh contract (8)
  • EvE Vahrokh investment (6)
  • Featured (9)
  • Games (24)
  • Market analyses (13)
  • Market mechanics (3)
  • Securities (1)
  • Software (5)
  • Trading (22)
  • W3 Total Cache (1)

History

  • October 2015 (1)
  • July 2015 (2)
  • February 2015 (1)
  • January 2015 (3)
  • December 2014 (1)
  • August 2014 (1)
  • April 2014 (2)
  • February 2014 (4)
  • December 2013 (1)
  • November 2013 (6)
  • October 2013 (3)
  • September 2013 (1)
  • August 2013 (5)
  • March 2013 (1)
  • February 2013 (1)
  • November 2012 (1)
  • October 2012 (7)
  • August 2012 (2)
  • July 2012 (1)
  • June 2012 (1)
  • May 2012 (4)
  • April 2012 (2)
  • March 2012 (1)
  • February 2012 (10)
  • December 2011 (3)
  • June 2011 (9)
  • May 2011 (7)
  • April 2011 (1)
  • March 2011 (3)
  • February 2011 (7)
  • January 2011 (2)

English Terms of service, legal notice - Contact or request information Privacy

Italiano Richiesta informazioni / contatto - Privacy

Additional copyright notices and credits for the products, media, names and brands featured on this web site

Copyright © 2008–2023 Vahrokh.com - all rights reserved · Log in

Definitioner

1 (OHLC)
Open, High, Low, Close (and sometimes Volume) data, is a finance industry standards format used to represent price evolution during a certain period of time (daily, weekly, hourly...). OHLC data are consumed by financial analysis applications and by charting software to represent price action.
audit
The general definition of an audit is an evaluation of a person, organization, system, process, enterprise, project or product.
1 (audit)
The general definition of an audit is an evaluation of a person, organization, system, process, enterprise, project or product.
1 (Meta game)
Meta gaming is a broad term usually used to define any strategy, action or method used in a game which transcends a prescribed ruleset, uses external factors to affect the game, or goes beyond the supposed limits or environment set by the game. Another definition refers to the game universe outside of the game itself.
1 (emergent)
Emergent gameplay refers to complex situations in video games, board games, or table top role-playing games that emerge from the interaction of relatively simple game mechanics.
1 (sandbox)
A sandbox game is a type of video game design where a player can roam freely through a virtual world and is given considerable freedom in choosing how or when to approach objectives. Sandbox emphasises a paradigm where, as in a physical sandbox, the user is entertained by his ability to do as they wish creatively and with there being "no right way" of playing the game
1 (discretionary)
A discretionary method is a trading method where little or no mechanical tools and procedures are used to decide the trades. A discretionary trader applies a solid ruleset basing on a flexible interpretation of the market
1 (PLEX)
A Pilot License Extension (PLEX) is an item that adds 30 days of game time to an EvE Online account. It is freely traded like any other in game item. CCP accepts to convert in game PLEXES to real money in case disasters and emergencies happen.
NEISIN
A New Eden Interstellar Securities Identification Number (NEISIN) uniquely identifies a security. While its structure is identical and strictly compliant with "real life" ISINs, NEISINs are tailored to New Eden investments and contracts.
1 (NEISIN)
A New Eden Interstellar Securities Identification Number (NEISIN) uniquely identifies a security. While its structure is identical and strictly compliant with "real life" ISINs, NEISINs are tailored to New Eden investments and contracts.