It’s been more than a year since I have posted a Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis.  One may take this as a problem or as an opportunity. I love taking opportunities. I recall having had some discussion with people not believing on trend lines. Well, I am going to show this Nitrogen Isotopes monthly chart, coming from this 2013 Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis.

To the “unbelievers” among you: of course one year ago I knew I’d be right about the trend lines and I’d prove it. Therefore I posted the analysis on the EvE Online forums as well, forums that in turn are saved on EvESearch.com for posterity.

Here’s the ancient chart:

Notice those two converging trend lines starting in 2012-2013? Somebody who’d have read my analysis and would have bought stock could have held it for months. Doing nothing but making passive money.

Here’s today’s chart for Nitrogen Isotopes:

Imagine this: buying at 800 and selling at 1200 or higher in August. But “higher” involves knowing the bar showing up 2 on June was a pin bar. Not just “a” pin bar, but a pin bar playing first top to the second top and playing as controlling bar… Too much complex stuff, just dump at 1200 and be happy with that and leave these complexities for real life trading .

Now, on to the current analysis.

Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

The market has peaked. Twice. At first on June 2014, then a second top appeared with the September 2014, 2 months pin bar. The resulting double top got to its target on November 2014. Since then, price is pressuring down. BRN 800 is proving quite of a formidable support, it’s now 4 months price can’t break it.

But what happens past this funny stuff? Another triangle! This time it’s small so it’s effects won’t be huge. However if it breaks down (75% of triangles are a trend continuity pattern), if we project its target (see old analyses to learn how) we see price could go as low as BRN 600 before meeting a strong obstacle. If it breaks upward, it’ll find a resistance at BRN 1000 already. I am not saying it could not go higher, but a resistance will be there. Of course this will sound like ambiguous language to say the least… however if I don’t have a certain, unique way situation at hand, I can’t know what price will decide to do next. Had it been a pin bar sitting on a support, it’d be different as it’s a known price action pattern and price is known to tend to try going back to the tip of the bar before the pin bar.

The post [NIISO] Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis appeared first on Vahrokh Vain.

Introduction

PLEXes are often a major topic on Market Discussions. Their seemingly endless rise attracts all sorts of opinions and speculation.

Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

Price is still running above a massively strong trend line started back in 2011. If you go back to months or even years ago, you’ll see I had already drawn this trend line.


Price is going close to the all time maximum. Sellers have appeared in January. But what you see is not a bearish pin bar. A bearish pin bar must appear at the top of a swing high, while the January bar is at the bottom of a swing high. Anyway the situation is unstable and buying so close to the all time maximum is very risky. Considering price has gone away from the trend line and it’s going to hit the history maximum, there’s definitely a probability for price to react to such maximum by going down to the trend line in confluence with BRN 600M. Notice the word “probability”: price goes where it wants, following its own logic. All we can do is to discern the relatively rare time windows when price acts in a predictable way and then let it go wherever it wants.

Last but not least: in the previous PLEX analysis I have written: “If price will go above that line, it’ll invalidate the first top and will setup to go to the next target, which is the all time high of mid Oct 2012“. Guess what happened?

The post 2014-02-25 [PLEX] PLEX market analysis appeared first on Vahrokh Vain.

Introduction

Many of you markets enthusiasts have loved CCP’s Chief Economist Dr. Ejyo’s periodic reports. They described a lot of neat EvE mechanics and events, including a number of indexes and markets analyses.

With this little article I may show you how to get a “feeling” about the EvE markets, like when you’d read Dr. Ejyo reports.

How to build it

The first step is to gather data. This web site has provided a number of tools to make it simpler and automated: how to import EvE markets data into a trading platform, or how to automatically populate your EvE client market data cache with appropriate markets.

They may be used to make yourself a picture of the EvE markets.

Step by step procedure

This procedure has been documented on the official EvE forums as well:

1) Open your market window.

2) Click on the “Price history” tab.

3) Make sure you have the chart enabled and not the table (the table works too but you need hawk eyes to notice what I want to let you see).

4) Make sure it’s set to “Year” (the last two options are to the bottom of the window).

5) Now, leave the market window open and also open your in game browser (IGB). Only using the IGB will work.

6) Enter this URL:

https://www.vahrokh.com/static/pages/eve-online/market-loader/market_loader.html

7) Click all the options one by one except the PI related ones (they require more advanced training) and then press “Stop” when they have cycled once.

In example, you pick “minerals”, wait for the minerals markets to finish cycling and return back to Tritanium then press “Stop” at the bottom of the page, next to the “Stop the updates” description. Then you go to the next buttons.

Here is a screenshot showing my setup. It allows for markets browsing while also letting me start and stop the markets browsing at any moment.

The post 2014-02-23 EvE Markets status appeared first on Vahrokh Vain.

Since some players have requested more downloads to be restored, their pages have been recreated and the files have been put up for download again.

The post 2013-12-27 Continuing the restoring of the downloads section appeared first on Vahrokh Vain.

Introduction

This analysis was sort of “stimulated” by Derp Durrr on the Zydrine Insurance EvE forums thread.

Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

Price reached an all time low, hit support and rebound up. Price re-entered above the monthly level 756.43. If this will stay true till the end of the month, then price will have confirmed a bullish move. In that case, the level will become a support and price will try and reach the next monthly level, 844.10.
 

The post 2013-11-16 [ZYDRN] Zydrine market analysis appeared first on Vahrokh Vain.

Introduction

This is an analysis kindly asked by Quinn Cooke on the Experiment #01: RL finance analysis applied to EvE thread.

Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

The monthly chart does not show a lot of useful stuff. We see price seem to get to an “hard” cap at the monthly level set at Round Number 83,000 ISK.

Like many other items and commodities, it looks like there’s a slight uptrend in prices across the years.

The whole market is centered around Big Round Numbers (BRNs) 60,000 – 65,000. That is, there’s a two years fight that pulls price below and above those values, this tells us that 60,000 – 65,000 is the current long term “fair” price. This also suggests to find buying opportunities when price is below that amount and to sell above, possibly near the monthly level. However, knowing price wants to go to 83,000 it’s never a given truth. Price may decide to stop early. Because it can.

The post 2013-11-16 [RBTCS] Robotics market analysis appeared first on Vahrokh Vain.

Introduction

PLEXes are often a major topic on Market Discussions. Their seemingly endless rise attracts all sorts of opinions and speculation.

Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

Price is still running above a massively strong trend line started back in 2011.
The day it’ll get broken downwards, we’ll see fireworks. And tears, many, many tears.

But as of now price is rising and heading towards the all time high of October / November 2012. If / when it’ll get to the high of that bar, that is up to 663M, then we’ll see fireworks as well. Price tends to strongly react at those critical places. I am not saying it’ll go up or down but that it’ll do it with great momentum, so keep on your toes!

The post 2013-11-16 [PLEX] PLEX market analysis appeared first on Vahrokh Vain.

Introduction

This is an update to the last Nitrogen Isotopes analysis.

Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

We are still above the super-strong support trend line. This means for now buyers are still reigning uncontrasted.

The post 2013-11-16 [NIISO] Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis appeared first on Vahrokh Vain.

Introduction

This is not just a market analysis but also a story about a peculiar trade and (see the daily chart section) the single handedly most important theory explanation I have written in all these years.

Always striving for innovation, I have taken the idea from VAERT’s Sister Funds: to spread risk, points of failure and workload over multiple organizations.

In this first pilot project I have contacted a nice player called Rhivre and asked her to sell a portion (8 billions ISK worth if I recall correctly) of my Nitrogen Isotopes stock. She did that and all were happy: me for not having had to sell everything (even if that stock was a fraction of the total) and she for having made some ISK for herself. Since then, I have also asked to other traders and have sold more and different items through them.

A natural series of questions about this initiative could arise:

– “why are you involving others?

– “isn’t disclosing your stock dangerous?

– “aren’t you giving up on profits by sharing the sales and letting those traders sell at better prices?”

The answer is this: peace of mind. I stopped caring to min max profits and performance long ago. I prefer sharing wealth to others who have the standings and the patience to station trade my stock. It’s still much more efficient than my old custom of just dumping the stock on buy orders.

As for keeping “trade secrets” and similar, all the SCC Lounge chat members who play at my hours know I tell my things in public. Since I deal with the most liquid markets of EvE it’s hard to face consequences for disclosing the stock.

Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

The market is still in uptrend. That’s more or less all the information we need. For the rest, I wanted to show the effect Big Round Numbers (BRNs) have on price: the cyan arrows show just some of the price interactions with the nearest BRNs, you could add many more by looking at the other BRNs and how they interact with price. The 3^rd from last bar is a massive pin bar, proving there has been a large sellout in that month. The pin bar has not been strong enough to invert the trend, so price is currently forming range markets inside it.

The post 2013-10-26 [NIISO] Nitrogen Isotopes market analysis appeared first on Vahrokh Vain.

Introduction

Every time the PLEX market does any kind of motion, we see a number of threads dedicated to finding out the secret reasons of that, the big hands that manipulate the markets from obscure command rooms and so on.

Those who follow price action analysis know better than that. The today’s chart is basically an extension of the one shown in this 2012 article.

Monthly chart

What Price is Doing (WPD)

The market is still in uptrend. It’s still above the very strong trend line (in red). It has hit a previous top, in confluence with 600M BRN. Unsurprisingly enough, that top happened at October 2012. Notice how that month is exactly the same. The next days will be great days to secure a profit for a large portion of the stock. The remaining part may be left in the market to try and “let the profits run”.

A didactical look at this chart

This is the same chart but with an highlight on two important concepts: support and resistance levels strength, support and resistance levels “magnetism”.

• Strength: it’s quite evident how price levels “compress” and constrain price above or below them. Even diagonal levels like the trend line (see purple circles) tend to affect price. Price has to spend its propellant, called liquidity to try and break those levels. When it succeeds, it tends to “take a nap” right above or below those levels, forming a range market. Some rarer times, the traders battle to win a level is so fierce that price starts ranging across the level, causing a level weakening effect over time. Once the level has been “consumed”, price is free to do whatever it wants like that level does not exist. 
   
• Magnetism: levels don’t just compress price. They also attract it when it passes close by. Basically price “snaps” to levels. Look at the blue circles: price deforms its swings or creates long tailed bars just to go hit those levels. Why? Because liquidity sits exactly there, at those levels. Price craves to get more liquidity, it’s the fuel it needs to go on. What’s liquidity? Simple: it’s the market participants money! They create a lot of orders at certain price levels for the most varied reasons. Price action analysts don’t care about what those reasons are about, just about the effects. Orders opposite of price’s trend will create a wall (resistance or support), while orders in favour will create speed ups.
  The markets dynamic is this: price runs like a pinball between traders orders walls and “speed coils”. Those walls tend to happen in easy to type or recall spots (big round numbers), other times they happen at known supply and demand equilibrium levels. Price action trading is about finding those levels, looking at where price is going with respect to those levels and then joining the prevalent trend and traders.

The post 2013-10-08 [PLEX] PLEX market analysis appeared first on Vahrokh Vain.